May be we can still cash the check..

- Vinayak

Courtesy: Data for the Graph "Infrastructure Development in India and China—A Comparative Analysis" M. Julie Kim and Rita Nangia August 2008.




If we are to look at Indian and Chinese decisions on infrastructure development from the point of view of "to where/which sector" the money was put in, as against "how"; a strikingly different part of the game reveals itself, or so I believe. For instance take a look at the much higher growth in the Telephone sector in China as against that in India during the period of 1980-90 and 1990-2005. Did you notice some other parameter that shows a similar trend? Yes , Annual GDP Growth? We are again back at the question as to 'does greater GDP growth leads to more telephone lines or vice-versa?'




Lets deviate a little, look at Sardar Patel Road congestion issue that has come up; the proposal is a 145 cr (114 cr for land acquisition) grade separator. Imagine decongestion is feasible, at least for a few years, through the implementation of, say, congestion pricing, or for that matter any other Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) for a reasonable investment of 20 cr. Looks like a saving of 125 cr isn't it? ; can't this be suitably used elsewhere, perhaps as research funding for stimulating the needed technological development which in turn will catalyze rapid economic development.




So compare now, for the sake, telephone and ITS; and you will see that they are/rely on the telecommunication backbone of the country. So essentially telecommunication, though indirectly, hypothetically helped us to postpone the congestion in Sardar Patel Road and help us find new technologies.




So could this logic explain why China overtook India in the economic race? So can we apply the same and cash in?, entering the virtuous circle, apply technology(which is by all means a part of infrastructure)>fund research>develop the economy>more research>better infrastructure>all kinds of development...




Before we set the ball rolling, lets reflect for a moment; are we at the right time and going in the right direction? 50% of our population is below 25 years of age where as 80% of Chinese population is above 15; We are at a better position of 79 in Failed States Index where as China stands at 62. Will our policy of promoting equality right from the start turn the tides in our favor? Or will, like China, accepting initial income inequality as an inevitable effect of economic development be the only way out? Will China's 10 point growth sustain? If so for how long?




Are we to shoot for the stars, with the hope that even if we miss we will land in the moon?




Reference:

1. "India’s Economic Growth and Market Potential: Benchmarked Against China" G.K. Kalyanaram GK Associates
2. "Is China's Economic Growth Sustainable?" Ali Wyne
3. "Infrastructure Development in India and China—A Comparative Analysis" M. Julie Kim and Rita Nangia
4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India
6. http://www.hindu.com/2010/08/04/stories/2010080458790100.htm
7. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Failed_States_Index