- "India’s Economic Growth and Market Potential: Benchmarked Against China" G.K. Kalyanaram GK Associates
- "Is China's Economic Growth Sustainable?" Ali Wyne
- "Infrastructure Development in India and China—A Comparative Analysis" M. Julie Kim and Rita Nangia
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India
- http://www.hindu.com/2010/08/04/stories/2010080458790100.htm
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Failed_States_Index
Courtesy: Data for the Graph "Infrastructure Development in India and China—A Comparative Analysis" M. Julie Kim and Rita Nangia August 2008.
If we are to look at Indian and Chinese decisions on infrastructure development from the point of view of "to where/which sector" the money was put in, as against "how"; a strikingly different part of the game reveals itself, or so I believe. For instance take a look at the much higher growth in the Telephone sector in China as against that in India during the period of 1980-90 and 1990-2005. Did you notice some other parameter that shows a similar trend? Yes , Annual GDP Growth? We are again back at the question as to 'does greater GDP growth leads to more telephone lines or vice-versa?'
Lets deviate a little, look at Sardar Patel Road congestion issue that has come up; the proposal is a 
145 cr (114 cr for land acquisition) grade separator. Imagine decongestion is feasible, at least for a few years, through the implementation of, say, congestion pricing, or for that matter any other Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) for a reasonable investment of 20 cr. Looks like a saving of 125 cr isn't it? ; can't this be suitably used elsewhere, perhaps as research funding for stimulating the needed technological development which in turn will catalyze rapid economic development.
So compare now, for the sake, telephone and ITS; and you will see that they are/rely on the telecommunication backbone of the country. So essentially telecommunication, though indirectly, hypothetically helped us to postpone the congestion in Sardar Patel Road and help us find new technologies.
So could this logic explain why China overtook India in the economic race? So can we apply the same and cash in?, entering the virtuous circle, apply technology(which is by all means a part of infrastructure)>fund research>develop the economy>more research>better infrastructure>all kinds of development...
Before we set the ball rolling, lets reflect for a moment; are we at the right time and going in the right direction? 50% of our population is below 25 years of age where as 80% of Chinese population is above 15; We are at a better position of 79 in Failed States Index where as China stands at 62. Will our policy of promoting equality right from the start turn the tides in our favor? Or will, like China, accepting initial income inequality as an inevitable effect of economic development be the only way out? Will China's 10 point growth sustain? If so for how long?
Are we to shoot for the stars, with the hope that even if we miss we will land in the moon?
Reference:
5 comments:
hey vinayak nice post...
I think the whole point of the post is to show how china is developing faster than india which is a 'fact' and if i am not wrong your supporting your post by one good example 'sardar patel congestion issue'..but your very vague about how money will be recovered using ITS or congestion pricing....you have given some statistics for congestion pricing...but congestion pricing will never work in countries like India you cannot restrict people who cannot afford to pay to not to use the road (don't get confused by toll which is a constant fare that is affordable and where as here cost will change depending on congestion which opens room for richer society and restricts poor).
As u never elaborated about other ITS techniques to recover the cost incurred i am taking that congestion pricing is the one that you to implement.
My whole point here its not about congestion pricing or economic inequality ,government always gets income in form of 'taxes' if it were used correctly or if government gets the tax that is proportional to the total money value in India government can easily afford for your '145cr'.So as i was asking in the class yesterday now the problem between India and china is not about technology or their policies it is about were is the tax for whole GDP(i am not sure if u can use this here) is going and about ethics,patriotism and loyalty of people who live in India.
PS:Do you really think India do not have the economic resources for its development?In my view no matter what technology(ITS etc) we use to take our country to better position it will be exploited at the same level making it useless.
ps2:This is first time i am blogging(whatever) pardon me i am wrong at some places.
Hey thanks for the quick response; but I do not agree with a few things that you said.
"how money will be recovered using ITS or congestion pricing"
Sorry I did not mean that; In fact I talked about the "saving" attained through implementation of a "cheaper" alternative ITS @ 20cr as compared to the present solution of grade-separator @ 145 cr. So 145-20=125cr saving. And yes the collection of "cash" from congestion pricing will probably just go in maintaining the system for collecting it. There is no question of that coming close to 125cr. [this is just a hypothetical solution; it may not be feasible]
"cannot restrict people who cannot afford to pay to not to use the road"
Why?? Someone who owns a car and drives from home to office can, by all means, afford 'the' congestion pricing. If he cannot, he can as well choose to go to work by bus/tram/ and what not. Besides that is the whole point of congestion pricing; restrict the usage so that the real needy may use the roads better.
"about ethics,patriotism and loyalty of people"
Do look at what the Failed States Index has to say. Sorry to put it so bluntly but in China you have mainly two class of people, one rich and corrupt and the other not rich and victims of corruptions.
It seems like better technology means better and affordable infrastructure which in turn leads to a better economy....But is India seriously lacking in technical expertise? I attribute the economic backwardness of India to its Governmental policies, its mismanagement, corruption and the like. Better policies, budget allocation, clear and defined government functioning in PPPs etc are ways by which we could always save money. One classic example of this could be the oddly managed Bangalore International airport(BIAL). The country's first greenfield airport(worth around 2500 crore) didn't match the international standards as expected. There was money, expertise...the flawed PPP policy allowed the private operator to aim for short term benefits at the cost of the pubic....and finally not providing the expected infrastructure. So technical expertise is not the need of the hour.....
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